I'd like to depict historical averages across the globe for regions of varying sizes. For example: current conditions in Tuscany is xx, Yorkshire is xx, etc. I plan to do this by calculating the historic averages of the region based on the long/lat of the geographic centre of the region.
The problem is as the regions get larger, clearly, the accuracy and value of the forecast diminishes.
Do you have a rule of thumb or suggestion as to the size of a geographic area where a forecast is no longer accurate?
Put another way, is it accurate to provide historic averages for:
Yorkshire (12,000 km2), what about
Tuscany (28,000 km2), surely not for
Baha California (70,000 km2)
I understand this a sliding scale, varies by geography, is a matter use case and that there is not going to be a clear answer. But any thoughts or experience on this would be really helpful.
Thanks!
The problem is as the regions get larger, clearly, the accuracy and value of the forecast diminishes.
Do you have a rule of thumb or suggestion as to the size of a geographic area where a forecast is no longer accurate?
Put another way, is it accurate to provide historic averages for:
Yorkshire (12,000 km2), what about
Tuscany (28,000 km2), surely not for
Baha California (70,000 km2)
I understand this a sliding scale, varies by geography, is a matter use case and that there is not going to be a clear answer. But any thoughts or experience on this would be really helpful.
Thanks!
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